First, listen to the “Model Talk” podcast (Links to an external site.) (~30 minutes). Listen to how Nate Silver talks about the polling and the results. This is a real application of sampling distributions. The model took lots of polls being done and aggregated them together to guess who was going to win the election. As there exists a lot of misunderstanding about polling and the election, listen to this from a statistical perspective.
After listening to “Model Talk” watch this short video (Links to an external site.) that tells you the difference between Obama’s run and Clinton’s run for president. It explains something that many people didn’t really understand: the difference between national polling and the electoral college.
Please be aware that this is a statistics class and politics is an important application of this science. However, there is also an emotional component and people voted for both candidates. All discussion needs to be centered around data and what objectively happened. Disparaging remarks about either candidate, their supports, or angry-emotional posting in general will not be tolerated. Doing so will get you referred to Student Affairs and potentially removed from the class.
What to discuss:
1) What did you learn about the election and polling that you did not know before?
2) How is the discussion of the model related to the linear regressions and sampling distributions we have learned about in class?
3) How might you explain polling, margin of errors, and sampling to friends/family?
Then read your peers’ posts. Respond to two of them to either support or respectfully disagree. You want to use facts, data, and research in your response. Refer to the podcast, the video, and your understanding of the statistical ideas.